As Roger Ebert notes, this does seem like one of the easier years to predict winners, especially in the acting categories, making long-winded analysis unnecessary. For once, however, the Best Picture category is legitimately, um, up in the air with only a few days to go. However, even in that race there's a favorite, and I'm sticking with it. So let's get to those predictions.

Best Picture
This is a two-horse race between "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker," each of which comes to the show with some negative baggage. "Avatar" director James Cameron rubs a lot of people the wrong way, and almost everyone who's raved about his latest movie qualifies their praise with something about the lackluster script and performances. Add in a little bit of negative publicity for Cameron's connection to Charles Pellgrino's debunked non-fiction book, "Last Train to Hiroshima," and you can probably count on a few lost votes. Alas, "The Hurt Locker" has been similarly compromised by allegations of inaccuracy and a violation of the Academy's campaign rules that resulted in one of its producers being banned from the Oscar ceremony. Assuming these controversies all cancel out, the buzz seems to favor "The Hurt Locker." A recent DVD release coupled with "Avatar" falling from the top of the weekly box office right about the time voters received their ballots, and it seems fair to predict... The winner will be: "The Hurt Locker"

Best Actor
Not even close. The winner will be: Jeff Bridges - "Crazy Heart"

Best Actress
Ditto. The winner will be: Sandra Bullock - "The Blind Side"

Best Supporting Actor
Ditto ditto. The winner will be: Christoph Waltz - "Inglourious Basterds"

Best Supporting Actress
Sigh. Ditto ditto ditto. The winner will be: Mo'Nique - "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"

Best Director
Finally. Another close race that warrants discussion. Given how much bigger a production "Avatar" was than "The Hurt Locker," an argument can be made that Cameron's work constitutes a more impressive accomplishment than Kathryn Bigelow's work on "The Hurt Locker." However, while Cameron spent most of his time dealing with technology on a soundstage, Bigelow produced far better performances from her cast. Given that actors make up more of the Academy's membership than any other discipline, that goes a long way. The Academy also likes making history, albeit 10 or 20 years late in most cases, so I expect voters to make a little history this year by (finally) naming a woman best director. The winner will be: Kathryn Bigelow - "The Hurt Locker"

And all the rest...
Original Screenplay: "Inglourious Basterds"
Adapted Screenplay: "Up in the Air"
Animated Feature: "Up"
Documentary Feature: "The Cove"
Foreign Language Film: "The White Ribbon"
Art Direction: "Avatar"
Cinematography: "Avatar"
Costume Design: "The Young Victoria"
Editing: "Avatar"
Makeup: "Star Trek"
Original Score: "Up"
Original Song: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" - "Crazy Heart"
Sound Editing: "Avatar"
Sound Mixing: "Avatar"
Visual Effects: "Avatar"
Documentary Short Subject: "China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province"
Animated Short Film: "Logorama"
Live Action Short Film: "The New Tenants"